Baseball Betting Tips & Guide
During the regular season, you will see a lot of good teams playing against a lot of bad teams. In those games, the run line might become a sizable underdog. Therefore, games are expected to be closer in score, and you will get better run line odds. Most times, when betting the run line live, you’ll see a spread right around what the score differential is in the game currently. In the above example, Mets -3.5 might be a -150 favorite since they are already up by four runs. On the other hand, the live line might be -4.5 as a +150 underdog.
At Sports Insights, our sports betting systems typically focus on the MLB money line, but customers often ask us about whether they can make money with baseball run line betting. For those who are unfamiliar, the “run line” is similar to the spread in sports like football or basketball. Instead of betting that a team will win the game straight up , you instead bet with a run line of 1.5. A favorite would be listed at -1.5, meaning that they would need to win by at least two runs to cover the spread. On the flip side, an underdog would be listed at +1.5 and would need to either win straight up or lose by one run for a bettor to cash in.
It’s also worth noting that some teams just aren’t very good at covering the spread while favored in the game. For example, a team might have a good record but had won numerous close games, so they might not be as good against the spread. The favorite is assigned a run line of (-1.5) and the underdog of (+1.5).
Not to mention that both squads are rolling out their fourth or fifth pitchers in the rotation. Rather than automatically expecting a high-scoring game like the casual public, you look into some additional variables. There has been some research that suggests an 8-point totals line is ripe for a -1.5 favorites bet.
Let’s say there’s a playoff between the Houston Astros and the New York Mets. You bet over 9.5 in the game and the Astros leads 8-6 by the seventh inning. Also, all pre-game bets will include any extra innings unless decided differently.
But now, if they lose the game by 1 or 2 runs, you’ll win your alternate run line bet. It’s only if they lose by 3 or more runs that you’ll lose this bet. This is much easier for them to do so the payout will be adjusted to a much lower number as you can see in the example above. Just make sure that you realize it does not matter who scores the runs or who wins the game. One team can score all the runs, or both teams can score them evenly; it does not matter.